Sunday, April 02, 2006
My season predictions ....
Yikes. It is that time of year again. The clinking of turnstiles, the sweet scent of freshly cut turf, the gentle sizzling of hotdogs, and the spinning of cotton candy: all symbols of spring blending into summer and the dawn of a new baseball season. Spring training is over, trade talk is put to one side, and every fan of every team is united in hope, and sometimes expectation, of a precious World Series victory (unless you support the Royals). Also the start of the new season brings with it a plethora of predictions: high brow newspapers, respected journals, random blogs and, come to think of it, almost every punter who has ever shown a hint of interest in our National Pastime. Given that I haven’t jumped on this particular bandwagon yet, I guess it is time for the prediction / guess / speculate (delete as appropriate) baton to pass to me.
I confess that I have left this article a little late, what with opening day a matter of only hours away! So rather than regurgitate the usual dross that is written about who’s going to win this or that pennant, I’ll do something a little different. I have taken $300 from my own pocket and bet on the losingest (is that really a word?) team in each division. Over the course of the season we’ll see how well I do and how much, if any, money I make. Sounds fun, right. Well, I thought so too until I handed 300 big ones over to some slightly overweight, cigar chomping bookmaker. So, who did I plump for? Here is the list, with odds:
AL East: Orioles 3/1
AL Central: Royals 1/6
AL West: Mariners Evens
NL East: Nationals 2/1
NL Central: Reds Evens
NL West: Rockies 1/2
Let’s go through each in turn, starting with the AL East. The Os to lose! What is all that about? What about the Devil Rays? I admit, this is a close call, but despite having possibly the finest shortstop in all of baseball in Tejada there is nothing else. The only thing that can save this team is if Leo Mazzone works his magic and make stars of a hitherto ropey pitching staff that has lost arguably its greatest asset in BJ Ryan. In my book the Rays have turned the corner, and with superstar talent coming through (Young, Upton, Crawford, Kazmir to name four) they could surprise everyone. In any case the Orioles’ odds looked too good to ignore.
In the AL Central the Royals virtually pick themselves – again! There is not much else to say except that any team which has a blog dedicated to a quest to lose less than 100 games is not in good shape (http://breaking-100.blogspot.com/).
Finally the AL West; this is a little more tricky but with only four teams I’ll use a process of elimination. The Angels and A’s are genuine contenders, not just for the division but the World Series, so we can ignore them. The Rangers have upgraded their rotation (Millwood) and shipped out the awfully overrated Soriano, so should finish with an even record at least. That leaves the Mariners, who despite having the most exciting young arm in baseball and adding the impressive Johjima, will still struggle. Beltre may regress towards the mean but will still struggle in Safeco’s cavernous outfield, and Seattle’s main acquisition, Jarrod Washburn, has a FIP of 5 – a 2 full points above his ERA last year – indicating that 2005 was a fluke. Someone has got to lose and it should be the Mariners.
Phew, the AL summary is over – lets move onto the NL, starting with the Central. Pirates or reds, Pirates or Reds, Pirates or Reds – hmm, I’ll take the Reds thank you very much. Actually it isn’t as difficult as I made out – the Reds ranked bottom in every major statistical category last season, and projections for this season aren’t much different. I’ll bank my evens odds thank you very much.
Moving swiftly on the NL East: this is a straight toss-up between the Marlins and the Nationals. Although the Marlins look marginally worse on paper I am still scarred by the last time the line-up was savaged in the off-season – within two years they won the World Series. Anyhow, the Nationals absolutely stank in the second half and haven’t improved (don’t get me started on the Soriano trade).
Finally lets look at the dreaded NL West. A league which was so bad last year only one team finished with a winning record and that was more by luck than judgment. All permutations are possible but the Giants, Dodgers and Padres all look reasonably competitive on paper. That leaves a two-horse race for last; the Diamondbacks made a few smart offseason moves (Batista for instance) and the Rockies are, well, the Rockies. Actually it is not as close as I first thought; the Rockies will lose at a canter.
There we have it. $300 burned – I’ll review progress at the All Star break. Say a prayer or two for me, I might need it.
I suppose I can’t sign off without giving my tip to win. I’m going for the Indians. The White Sox were a shade lucky last year – all the evidence points to them being at 85 win team – and the Indians have a great rotation, good batting, and did well to acquire Marte, who should fill a hole at 3rd. They’ll take the Central and from there who knows. Once more it will be in the lap of those great October Gods.
I confess that I have left this article a little late, what with opening day a matter of only hours away! So rather than regurgitate the usual dross that is written about who’s going to win this or that pennant, I’ll do something a little different. I have taken $300 from my own pocket and bet on the losingest (is that really a word?) team in each division. Over the course of the season we’ll see how well I do and how much, if any, money I make. Sounds fun, right. Well, I thought so too until I handed 300 big ones over to some slightly overweight, cigar chomping bookmaker. So, who did I plump for? Here is the list, with odds:
AL East: Orioles 3/1
AL Central: Royals 1/6
AL West: Mariners Evens
NL East: Nationals 2/1
NL Central: Reds Evens
NL West: Rockies 1/2
Let’s go through each in turn, starting with the AL East. The Os to lose! What is all that about? What about the Devil Rays? I admit, this is a close call, but despite having possibly the finest shortstop in all of baseball in Tejada there is nothing else. The only thing that can save this team is if Leo Mazzone works his magic and make stars of a hitherto ropey pitching staff that has lost arguably its greatest asset in BJ Ryan. In my book the Rays have turned the corner, and with superstar talent coming through (Young, Upton, Crawford, Kazmir to name four) they could surprise everyone. In any case the Orioles’ odds looked too good to ignore.
In the AL Central the Royals virtually pick themselves – again! There is not much else to say except that any team which has a blog dedicated to a quest to lose less than 100 games is not in good shape (http://breaking-100.blogspot.com/).
Finally the AL West; this is a little more tricky but with only four teams I’ll use a process of elimination. The Angels and A’s are genuine contenders, not just for the division but the World Series, so we can ignore them. The Rangers have upgraded their rotation (Millwood) and shipped out the awfully overrated Soriano, so should finish with an even record at least. That leaves the Mariners, who despite having the most exciting young arm in baseball and adding the impressive Johjima, will still struggle. Beltre may regress towards the mean but will still struggle in Safeco’s cavernous outfield, and Seattle’s main acquisition, Jarrod Washburn, has a FIP of 5 – a 2 full points above his ERA last year – indicating that 2005 was a fluke. Someone has got to lose and it should be the Mariners.
Phew, the AL summary is over – lets move onto the NL, starting with the Central. Pirates or reds, Pirates or Reds, Pirates or Reds – hmm, I’ll take the Reds thank you very much. Actually it isn’t as difficult as I made out – the Reds ranked bottom in every major statistical category last season, and projections for this season aren’t much different. I’ll bank my evens odds thank you very much.
Moving swiftly on the NL East: this is a straight toss-up between the Marlins and the Nationals. Although the Marlins look marginally worse on paper I am still scarred by the last time the line-up was savaged in the off-season – within two years they won the World Series. Anyhow, the Nationals absolutely stank in the second half and haven’t improved (don’t get me started on the Soriano trade).
Finally lets look at the dreaded NL West. A league which was so bad last year only one team finished with a winning record and that was more by luck than judgment. All permutations are possible but the Giants, Dodgers and Padres all look reasonably competitive on paper. That leaves a two-horse race for last; the Diamondbacks made a few smart offseason moves (Batista for instance) and the Rockies are, well, the Rockies. Actually it is not as close as I first thought; the Rockies will lose at a canter.
There we have it. $300 burned – I’ll review progress at the All Star break. Say a prayer or two for me, I might need it.
I suppose I can’t sign off without giving my tip to win. I’m going for the Indians. The White Sox were a shade lucky last year – all the evidence points to them being at 85 win team – and the Indians have a great rotation, good batting, and did well to acquire Marte, who should fill a hole at 3rd. They’ll take the Central and from there who knows. Once more it will be in the lap of those great October Gods.
